Albanian Ret. Gen Piro Ahmetaj
The eyes and attention of state members, institutions, research institutes, media, strategic security experts and other actors are focused on Washington D.C, where in the middle of this coming week, i.e. on July 10 and 11, 2024, the 37th Summit of North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) will take place.
Privileged to be invited by the “Forum of NATO College Senior Experts“, Rome, I would like to share an strategic overview on the security environment and threats as well as the “8 historic expectations” by the respective 32 member countries (including Albania) from this Summit, regarding to: “collective defence, the future of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance, the kneeling of Russia in Ukraine, relations with the EU, middle east, the stability of the Western Balkans, etc.”:
*** An overview of the Summits and Why precisely in Washington DC, NATO is destined to sign the history beyond the 100th anniversary of its foundation (1949 -2049).
First of all, NATO Summits are not “annual routine meetings“, but most important events at the critical crossroads of facing collective security risks and threats, with the aim of “updating and modernizing the concept, military power, rules of engagement and the decision-making process of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance“.
In the 75-year history of NATO (1949-2024), out of a total of 37 Summits, only 10 were held during the Cold War (in 40 years), while 27 of them took place between 1990 and 2024.
Perhaps not coincidentally, at the Washington Summit (1999), for the first time, NATO expanded with 3 countries of the Eastern or Warsaw camp (Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic), while even after this historical Summit of 1999, so in the last 25 years, it has doubled the number of member countries (from 16 to 32 including recently Sweden and Finland).
So, with almost 3 times higher number of Summits after 90-ies and the doubling of the NATO enlargement map, speak more louder than all the speeches held in Washington, Brussels and elsewhere, about the unforeseen dynamics of threats in the last 25 years, as well as the NATO challenging mission for the next 75 years: “the Alliance will remain again undefeated“!
Second, at the geopolitical level, this Summit is expected to be historic, as it will address one of the most critical crossroads after the end of World War II and the establishment of the Alliance (1949), because it “is held almost 29 months after the neo-Nazi aggression of Russia against Ukraine’s enduring sovereignty as well as to test the Global security order and geopolitical status-quo established after the cold war“.
In this security environment, the number one priority of Washington’s agenda is expected to be the modernization of its udefeated military power, including the display of nuclear weapons/ deterrence, in order “to deter, discourage and retaliate or strongly react against adversaries who dare to provoke or attack the Alliance “.
Therefore, after this Summit, NATO’s High Readiness Forces are planned to reach over half a million (as never before in 75 years), and the combat capabilities of Air and Naval Forces will be doubled, to guarantee collective defence (article-5) from hostile countries, states or terrorist organizations, etc.
As for Putin’s fatal threatening that: “Russia will violate the Nuclear Treaty signed by Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan in 1987” and that “they will highly harm civilization“, the response from the Washington Summit is expected to be strong as well as cold: “if only dared, Russia would definitely be labelled as a “terrorist state” and will be punished in a symbolic way by the power of the USA/NATO. While Putin and the oppressors around him, like the Nazis, Milosevics, etc., will be punished “for crimes against humanity“!
Third, this Summit is “destined/ enforced” to make history as it is held after almost 880 days/ nights of bloody fighting “not only for the Ukraine“, but it is also challenging the credibility, military power and geopolitical interests of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance (US/NATO/EU).
Therefore, this Summit is expected and will be described as one of the most important event of the Alliance since its foundation (1949), as the heads of 32 member states are gathered in Washington to demonstrate its political will, unwavering cohesion, uncompromising support as well as determination for the victory in the war against the common evil (Putinist-Russia).
On the other hand, 29 months of fighting in Ukraine proved (with 2-3 exceptions from controversial actors), that the Kremlin has also definitely lost not only the war against Ukraine (less19 % have occupied so far) but also its hopes of undermining the cohesion among NATO and EU countries. Therefore, NATO will demonstrate in Washington an uncompromising support to the victory of Ukraine [over 300 billion euro of last generation weapons (140 billion euro from the USA and 160 billion euro from the EU), with the example of newest member, Sweden allocated 6.6 billion euro; from the use of Russian assets, etc).
So, the Washington Summit will confirm that for the Euro-Atlantic Alliance: “there are no other options than victory at any cost in the war against Russia“. Moreover, the 32 members remain determined that Moscow, after losing the war in Ukraine, will be even more isolated and will lose its geopolitical weight in the world, including the Black Sea, the Balkans, the Mediterranean, etc.
Fourth, this Summit takes place not only at the right time, but also with critical needed expectations: “to modernize military structures, armaments, equipment and infrastructures based on the principle of burden sharing”, i.e. the increase of at least 2% of the defence budget“, so that the Alliance remains invincible “to face any threat, at any time, from any direction and against any potential enemy“.
In order to make this expectation of the Summit as clear as possible, let me quote NATO Secretary General, Stoltenberg, who a month before the Summit, precisely in Washington, called NATO countries to allocate “2% of their GDP only as a minimum“, while adding the fact that during the last 25 years 2% of GDP has been only an unfulfilled objective by most member countries. Thus, Washington will welcome the fact that from only 5 countries before the war in Ukraine (until 2022), the defence budget in 2024 for the 23 NATO countries reached 2%, i.e. the biggest increase of the last 3 decades without including the US that this year has reached a record budget of about 1.1 trillion USD, and NATO European countries that have increased the defence budget by over €500 billion.
Fifth, after the enlargement with Sweden and Finland as the response to Russia’s unprovoked war with Ukraine, this Washington Summit (when the enlargement started 25 years ago in 1999,) in 2024 will finally re-confirm the “open door policy” even for Kosova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, as well as strengthen the cooperation with countries with “privileged status” such as Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Israel, etc., which will be invited to participate as well in this historic Summit.
As for Ukraine, in less than 1 month before this Summit, during his visit to Washington, acting Secretary Stoltenberg (which will be replaced by Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte on October 1-st), confirmed that: “after the victory of the war, Ukraine will be the 33-d country of the Alliance“, while a “NATO – Ukraine Committee” will be formalized at the Summit, which means a step closer to membership.
Sixth, the Summit is expected to promote an increased role of the Alliance’s advanced technologies such as remotely piloted drones, advanced cyber systems, the ever-increasing role of artificial intelligence (AI), the introduction of low-orbit satellites, the involvement of private companies and free market economy in NATO projects, as well as promotion of a growing cohesion of Euro-Atlantic societies with the architecture and collective defence mission.
Seventh, the presidents of 32 countries (27 of which also EU members) in Washington will confirm the “the vital role of USA“, since its over 1 trillion USD defense budget in 2024, or twice more than the 31 other NATO countries, so the US bears the main burden of the Alliance’s defense expenses.
Having said above, the Summit will strongly confirm the critical importance and necessity of further strengthening transatlantic relations.
A special role will be devoted to further strength the strategic partnership with the EU. However, it should be considered that the heads of the 27 member states of the European Parliament, just 10 days ago (June 29, 2024) approved an Action Plan (2024 – 2029) as well as a very ambitious support package of 500 billion euro (or 20 times higher than its current spending), which aim is to: “overcome the current shortcomings as well as building interoperable forces to face threats coming mainly from Russia“.
However, this EU Project, which is certainly not new at all (Berlin-Plus Agreement, established in 2002“, is expected to be confirmed in Washington. It does never intend to compete with the US/ NATO, nor to duplicate spending on military capabilities, but it will be translated into programs, structures, equipment and complementary infrastructure, mainly for peacekeeping operations, etc.
Eighth, at the Summit, clear messages are expected to be given regarding the relations with China, especially on the critical necessity for the development of the spirit of peaceful coexistence and the measures of mutual confidence; of unconditional dialogue for peace, democratic standards and the Euro-Atlantic integration agenda of the Balkans.
Thus, it is expected that the Summit will confirm that Russia has lost the battle to open a new war front of China against Taiwan or by inspiring the oscillations of Milosevic and extremists of the Dodik type in the Balkans, threatening even “with military aggression” not only the territorial sovereignty of the Republic of Kosova, but also KFOR presence, as well as the peace, status-quo and geopolitical interests of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance in the Region.
*** In addition, this is the 11th Summit (after 2009) that Albania sits as a member with full rights at the “table among equals of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance“. In the capacity “of a Senior Expert for National and Regional Security, as well as among the contributors to the 15-year journey of Albania after NATO full membership (2009), following and I will present why the Washington Summit is historic for Albania as well, together with respective 6 recommendations for strategic authorities of Albania beyond this Historical Summit:
- Support the strategic partnership, cohesion and unconditional consensus (alongside US) for all NATO decision-making, projects and operations in the interest of collective defence (Article 5); the “more than modest” support to Ukraine and a leading role/ country to promote peaceful coexistence, democratic stability, geopolitical interests and the Euro-Atlantic agenda in the region.
- Confirm the official political will and determination of Tirana for the transformation of the National Security System, in accordance with the Collective Defence Concept, by updating, transforming and modernizing: “the concept, democratic balance of powers, structures, equipments; operational skills and the culture of cooperation between responsible Institutions/ Agencies, in the interest of the safety of life, health, property, and well-being of our citizens; the promotion of Euro-Atlantic values; the protection and developing of national interests as well as the fulfilment of Albania’s obligations in NATO“.
- Re-confirm the commitment to keep at “minimum 2%” of GDP from 2024 and further on“, with the aim of developing national capabilities to fulfil obligations within the framework of NATO’s collective defence, handling the safety of its citizens; promoting stability of the democratic values, cyber security, protection from disinformation and Russian-Chinese influence, etc.
- Fulfilling all the responsibilities of the host country (Host Nation), for the modernization of Kuçova Air Base, re-vitalization of the plants for the production of ammunition, etc., obligations arising from SOFA Paris protocol and other agreements which are signed by Albania before 2013.
- Uncompromising support and promotion of Kosova’s and Bosnia-Herzegovina’s efforts towards NATO membership, confirming in Washington that such a “smart approach” further expands the map of sustainable peace in the region and beyond. Also, confirm the leading country role in the development of joint projects with Kosova and other Balkan countries (including Serbia) against asymmetric threats: “terrorism, cyber, organized crime, civil emergencies, etc.”
- Meanwhile, I advise the political actors and state actors of Tirana and Pristina that: “the 8 expectations and messages of the Washington Summit, the loss of war by Russia, its economic collapse and international discredit after the war (including its role in Balkans), will bring a favourable geopolitical situation for Albania at major decision-making tables (USA/ NATO/ UN/ EU, to protect and develop national and regional interests, in the Mediterranean, etc.”.
In conclusion, taking into the consideration all above, I strongly believe that: “this Summit, taking place in Washington, so un the capita blessed to make history“, will well-address the critical solutions for the security, peace and western democratic values in the Euro-Atlantic countries. So, I am hopeful that the Washington Summit will design the NATO of the 21st century, in order to still remain for the next 75 years as “the most powerful Alliance in the history of mankind…”!
